Picking 6 teams from each conference to make the playoffs each year is a difficult task. Doing it only a few weeks after the Super Bowl is over is even tougher. Ordering all 16 teams in each conference may be impossible, but that is what I am going to try and do.
To find the NFL standings from 2010 go here.
Let's break it down by division; starting from the weakest division and moving to the strongest.
The NFC West was the first division to ever send a team with a losing record to the playoffs as the Seahawks played and beat the defending Super Bowl champions. Seattle moves forward with huge question marks at the QB position as Matt Hasselbeck is a free agent and is expected to leave and with a mish-mash of RBs, all of whom have not proven they can be a workhorse for the teams they have been with in the career. Arizona faces just as many QB questions but may have an upper hand with Beanie Wells and Tim Hightower leading the rushing attack and one of the best WRs in the league in Larry Fitzgerald dominating defenses. St. Louis shows the most promise of the group with the pieces to get to the playoffs. The 49ers, a 2010 favorite, are also facing some QB issues, but have one of the best RBs in the league in Frank Gore and plenty of talent at the WR and TE positions. The NFC West has to play the NFC East as well as the AFC North. Not an easy task. I definitely see an 8-8 or 7-9 team once again winning this division. Seattle 5-11, Stl. Louis 6-10, San Francisco 7-9 St. Louis 7-9.
The NFC East always has a chance to send 3 teams to the playoffs. The Cowboys are coming off a huge disappointment in 2010 but have all of the offensive pieces to score big and a solid enough defense to stay in games til the end. If they can protect Tony Romo and open a few gaps for Jones, Choice, and Barber, this could be a very dangerous team. The Giants have been led by back to back 4000 yard passing seasons by the "other" manning and were a 28 point 4th quarter comeback by the Eagles away from being 11-5 and getting the #2 spot in the playoffs. I think this team continues to play well and they should be in the hunt in late December. The Eagles have rediscovered Michael Vick, so much so that they may even trade Kevin Kolb this off season. Their young stars on offense including D-Jack, Maclin, McCoy, and Celek provide the chance to put up 30+ every weekend. Defenses also have to work on containing Vick which is no easy task. At the bottom of the heap are the Redskins. This team continues to overpay washed up veterans and is heading the wrong direction. Expect this to be a "re-building" year. The NFC East plays the NFC West and the AFC East meaning there could be at least 6 games (all NFC East game as well as Miami and Buffalo) that the NFC East team is the favorite, even on the road. Washington 4-12, Giants 10-6, Cowboys 10-6, Eagles 12-4.
The NFC South has come out of no where over the past couple of years and has produced three teams that will all be fighting for a playoff spot in December. One thing to look at however, is the fact that the NFC South played the NFC West last year and also got games against Cincy and Cleveland. This year they play the NFC North and the AFC South. Tampa Bay is one of the youngest teams in the league, but they have a great deal of talent as well. They may have a tough time breaking through against the Saints and Falcons quite yet though. Atlanta had the best record in the NFC in 2010 and looks to repeat that feat. If they can protect home field like they did last year (7-1) and win the games they are favored to win on the road, they could be looking at another first round bye in 2011. New Orleans made the playoffs in 2010 after their 2009 SB victory, only to fall to a team with a losing record. The sting of that defeat will drive them all off-season. If Pierre Thomas and Chris Ivory can stay healthy, this team can consistently put up 25+ points a game. A possible week 1 match-up against Green Bay could be a barn burner! Finally, the lowly Carolina Panthers need help everywhere. Steve Smith is STILL their number 1 WR which does not bode well for an aging team. They have no answer at QB and DeAngelo Williams is bound to hit free agency. This team could actually be worse than it was in 2010 with no easy games against the NFC West. Carolina 4-12, TB 9-7, New Orleans 10-6, ATL 11-5.
Finally is the NFC North. This division had 2 playoff teams last year and of course the SB champs in the Green Bay Packers. They face the NFC South and the AFC West this season which could provide 6 games where NFC North teams are favored (all but ATL and NO). Detroit won 4 games in a row to end the 2010 season and they are a young team with a ton of potential. In the past that potential has not turned into wins, but I see a changing of the guard near the top of the division. If one team is moving up than at least one is moving down. The Chicago Bears went 11-5 and claimed the #2 seed in the NFC in 2010, however a TD waived off in week 1 for Detroit was the difference between a 2 seed and missing the playoffs all together (10-6 would have created a tie for the top of the NFC North with GB which Chi would have lost and then a tie with NYG for the 6 seed which Chi would have lost). An aging Bears defense and questions on the offensive line could spell absolute disaster for this team. The Vikings are also moving in the wrong direction. After being a play away from the 2009 Super Bowl, they went 6-10 in 2010 as Brett Favre's age finally showed through. With AP running the ball, Rice, Harvin, and Shiancoe making plays in the passing game, and a defense that hasn't actually changed much since the 2009 outing, this team has most of the pieces they need. But as we saw in 2010, if they don't find a QB they could be in for a long season. Finally is the defending Champion Green Bay Packers. The Packers went 10-6 in 2010 but lost all 6 games by 4 points or fewer and never trailed by more than 7 all season. Green Bay accomplished this with 16 players on IR including their top RB and top TE. This team is poised for another deep playoff run. Bears 6-10, Vikings 6-10, Lions 9-7, Packers 13-3.
So the 6 playoff teams in order of seeding will be Green Bay, Philly, Atlanta, St. Louis, New Orleans, Dallas.
Dallas over ATL, NO over St. Louis. Green Bay over Dallas, Philly over NO. GB over Philly.
NFC West: I don't think STL is given enough credit. They've been gaining ground
ReplyDeleteNFC East: As crazy as it sounds, I think that WAS has a better chance to improve from 2010 to 2011 than DAL or NYG simply because they have a consistent coach (not because I'm a WAS fan). I only see 1 playoff team on this div: PHI. I see NYG and DAL in more of a building year because of the coach transition. I think WAS is going to trade McNabb and also start a building year. These three teams are going to fight it out and all tie for 4th in the division. Also, NYG seems to be a start hard, finish weak team the past 2 years. Finaly, the Vick Factor was less potent as the season wore on and defenses figured out how to stop him. I think PHI needs to get another weapon to keep defenses honest on Vick.
NFC South review seems pretty balanced to me.
NFC North, I think Bears will do much better than 6-10 but I don't think they'll have a playoff year unless they staff up heavy. I think the Bears have a good shot at being a wildcard team this year - there are a lot of questionmarks on that team (aging defense, etc) but I think they still have enough strength for 2011, I question their ability in 2012. I agree that the Lions are going to be the single biggest factor in this division this year. And the Vikings are going to have a bad year, I think, because they've got to deal with the coach transition and because of the Moss fiasco. For the past 2 years Vikings have been an all or nothing team, Childress was gambling for a ring and his former team is about as well off as he is. Finally, I agree that the Pack is #1 pick here simply because they are so young and appear to all be dedicated to the team.
Overall