As we enter the season for FF drafts I think it is important that I break down one of the strategies that can be used for a winning season. Back in the day everyone, and I mean EVERYONE, made sure to draft 2 RBs in the first two rounds or maybe 2 in the first three rounds if they wanted to grab an elite WR or QB. Never was there the plan of taking 3 of the top 10 WRs in the first 3 rounds and hoping to get lucky later with some iffy RBs. While strategies may have changed, there is still one method involving back to back RBs that is a sure fire way to give you an advantage against the other owners. That strategy revolves around avoiding the RBBC (running back by committee) plan that so many teams now employ.
What do Michael Turner, Steven Jackson, Arian Foster, Rashard Mendenhall, Cedric Benson, CJ2K, Adrian Peterson, and MJD all have in common? Each of them had at least 280 carries in 2010 and each of them played a part in leading many teams into their fantasy football playoffs, and likely to a title game. The importance of having a running back who is getting 75%+ of the carries for their team cannot be understated. So in this article I want to give you the RBs who I expect to see 75%+ of the carries for their team. I will rank them in order of number of carries, not necessarily in order of value.
There are 32 teams in the NFL, but only 14 of them will likely employee a strategy where one RB gets 75% or more of the carries.
1. Cedric Benson: My bet is that he re-signs with Cincy, who now has no QB and no WRs. Benson is going to see a ton of carries and this season will end his career. Projection: 380 carries
2. Ray Rice: Rice had 307 carries last year. He is certain to increase those carries after the release of Willis McGahee, Todd Heap, and Derrick Mason. Rice is clearly going to be the go-to guy. Rice also gained over 550 receiving yards in back to back seasons. Projection: 350 carries
3. MJD: Little Hercules hit 299 carries last year in only 14 games. Jacksonville is just as bad and MJD will be the main source of offense. If his body doesn’t fall apart, MJD should be a stud this year. Projection: 340 carries
4. Jamaal Charles: Get ready for a new King in town. Charles had 230 carries last season and a disgusting 6.4ypc! Believe it or not, his counterpart, Thomas Jones, had 245 touches. That is not going to be the case this year. Kansas City might run the ball 475 times, but if they do you can expect JC to see at least 350 of those touches. I think 400 carries for the team and 330 for JC is a little more likely though.
5. Steven Jackson: He is still the best player on his team and while Bradford has a year under his belt, S-Jax is still going to be a workhorse. Expect similar numbers as 2010. Projection: 325 carries
6. Michael Turner: The burner will see a very slight drop off in carries as ATL had added Julio Jones to the pass attack. Projection: 320 carries
7. Rashard Mendenhall: When something works well, why change it? Pitt has some great options in this pass game, but this guy gets it done on the ground. Projection: 315 carries
8. CJ2K: Hasselbeck might actually take some of the pressure off of CJ doing everything in TN. The hold-out doesn’t hold CJ back imo. Projection: 310 carries
9. Adrian Peterson: You might think that with McNabb coming to town, “All Day” would see a decrease in carries. But remember, the Vikings went 6-10 last year. AP needs to get back to his old rushing levels. Projection: 305 carries
10. Arian Foster: Foster carried me to a title last year and I hope he does the same this year (keeper league). But he will not be seeing 327 carries. Now that Schaub, AJ, and Daniels are all healthy and Ben Tate is back in the mix, Foster should see a productive but slight drop off. Projection: 290 carries
11. Darren McFadden: This dude is a freak. He saw 223 carries last year in 13 games and averaged 5.2 YPC. Michael Bush is not going to eat away at McFadden’s carries like he did last year. McFadden MIGHT not hit 75% of the carries (because Oakland sucks and will run the ball quite a bit), but he should still be good for about 285 carries.
12. LeGarrette Blounte: Blounte is going to be a star in the coming seasons. He only played in 13 games last year but still saw over 200 carries. As the clear favorite in TB he should see a nice increase this season. Projection: 275 carries
13. LeSean McCoy: I am in love with this guy after totally disrespecting him in mock drafts last year. McCoy is going to be a top 5-6 RB this season because he sees a lot of touches both in the run game and the passing game. Projection: 265 carries
14. Matt Forte: If Chicago doesn’t learn to run the ball, Cutler is going to continue throwing a crazy number of INTs each season. Forte will see an increase from the 237 carries he got last year. Projection: 260 carries
There are a few other RBs that could end up seeing a large chunk of their teams’ carries. Ahmad Bradshaw received over 270 touches last year, but only hit 65% of the total carries as Jacobs also ran the ball a lot. Bradshaw is a pretty safe bet to see at least 70% of the touches and upwards of 275 carries so don’t be afraid to treat him as a RB who can avoid the committee label. Frank Gore should technically be on this list as I expect him to see 75% of his teams’ carries. But don’t be fooled. He is 29 years old and just hasn’t gotten back to his old form. I would avoid him unless you can get him cheap. Shonne Greene could be a loner in New York if LT is held to 3rd down plays. At this point it is a tough call. Greene has a lot of added value in keeper leagues however. One surprise could be Fred Jackson. If C.J. Spiller doesn’t start living up to all the hyper he had entering the 2010 season, Jackson is going to be a steal. Don’t expect Denver to start the season with Moreno as their workhorse…but if it happens, he will certainly see 300+ carries. Peyton Hillis – everyone expects Hardesty to steal some carries, but after last year that might not be the case.
If you want to take a cheap risk, try these guys on for size: Reggie Bush – currently the sole RB in Miami; Marshawn Lynch – This cool cat might have found a home for a while in Seattle. He has the talent and he also had the greatest run of 2010 in their playoff game against New Orleans. Ryan Grant isn’t expected to return to the form that gave him back to back 1200 yard seasons, but if he does he should see 80% of the Packers carries. Felix Jones will be competing against Choice as well as a new rookie RB in Dallas. If he can start the season off with a bang though, he could see the majority of carries in a powerhouse offense.
So now on to strategy: If you can grab 2 of those 14 RBs with your first two picks, you are nearly guaranteed to see 100-200 more carries on the season than a large majority of the league you are playing against. Imagine grabbing Ray Rice with the 4th overall pick and then getting Credic Benson in the 2nd (a legit possibility). You could see upwards of 750 carries for your top 2 RBs. The guy who drafts right after you and taken Michael Vick in the first and DeSean Jackson in the 2nd is going to end up with RBs that might get him 450 touches on the year. Any team grabbing an extra 300 carries should expect a large advantage. So grab those RBs early and make sure they aren’t having to share the rock.
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