Ranking the AFC

I must admit, the NFC is much easier for me to rank than the AFC. On Sundays during football season you will see me watching Fox over CBS most weeks, which means I see far more NFC games than AFC games. But, stats don't lie and we can take quite a bit from them in projection the 2011 standings. If you want to see the 2010 standings go here. To see 2011 match-ups go here.

The balance of power in the AFC may never have been more closely challenged than in its current state. The AFC North has two dominant teams in the Steelers and the Ravens while the Browns and Bengals are weak. The AFC East has to very good teams in the Pats and Jets but the Fins and Bills are not too hot. The AFC South has the colts leading the way and then 3 teams that could make a playoff push at any point in the Texans, Titans, and Jags. Then there is the weaker but still competitive AFC West with the 2010 winning Chiefs, the perennial favorite Chargers, and the up and coming Raiders and Broncos. Picking 6 playoff teams from this bunch is no easy task, but things may look earily similar to the 2010 standings when its all said and done.

The AFC North sent two teams to the playoffs last year. The Steelers obviously have the pieces to go to and win a Super Bowl. They have been three times in the last six years and show very little sign of slowing down. If their young WR core can learn from the vet (Hines Ward) and continue to develop, this will be a dangerous team again in 2011. Baltimore has lived and died by their defense for almost a decade. While they still have some great defensive weapons, their offense could actually be the focus in 2011. A WR core made up of Boldin, Stallworth, Mason and Heap and a ground game led by Ray Rice to go with a QB that is getting better each year in Flacco could spell disaster for the rest of the division. Cleveland may have answered a couple of questions about their offense, finding talent in Hillis and winning games against the Pats and Saints, but they are a far cry from a playoff team. Too many holes on both sides of the ball could make this another year for growth and development. The Bengals may have the most question marks of any team in the league. Will Palmer stay or will he go? What will become of Cedric Benson, a current free agent, and who leads the passing game if both TO and Chad Johnson hit the road? I wouldn't be surprised to see this team go 2-14. I also wouldn't be surprised to see them get things together and be sitting at .500 with a few games left in the year and a chance at a wildcard spot. The AFC North plays the NFC West and the AFC South. There will be a number of easy games in there and the AFC North should have the easiest non-division games of any division. Cincy 5-11, Cleveland 6-10, Pittsburg 12-4 Baltimore 13-3.

The AFC East is going to surprise this year, but not in the way you may expect. After tieing with the NFC South for a league leading 36 wins, there is little room to improve, but plenty of room to decline. The AFC East plays the AFC West and the NFC East. This will provide a mix of tough games and possible cakewalks. The Patriots will continue their dominance of the division and the rumor mill is giving them a chance at landing D-Will. Pairing him with BGE could create a powerhouse running game that opens things up even further for one of the best QBs in the league. The Jets proved that they are a team that has tons of talent on both sides of the ball, but drama within the organization always seems to overshadow their accomplishments. Back to back AFC title games won't mean much in 2011 as they go 2-4 in the division and miss the playoffs all together. The Miami Dolphins were one of the strangest teams in 2010 going 6-2 on the road, but only 1-7 at home. They may look to draft a stud RB to replace the aging duo of Brown and Williams, but QB issues may leave them still needing leadership. 6 games against the Jets, Pats, and Bills don't help much either. The Bills are my surprise team of 2011. C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson will combine for over 2000 total yards while Ryan Fitzpatrick ends the season as a top 10 QB. If their defense can find a way to keep teams under 20ppg on a regular basis, this team should be looking at a wild card birth. Dolphins 4-12, Jets 7-9, Bills 10-6, Pats 11-5.

The AFC South looked like a crap shoot for a while in 2010 before the Colts got a must-win against the Jags in week 15 and ended up winning the division. That will not be the case in 2011. Manning will have one of the best group of receivers and tight ends in the league at his disposal. When healthy those targets include Wayne, Garcon, Collie, Gonzalez, Clark, and Tamme. Their run game is led by Addai when healthy, but Brown and James are also able to carry some of the load. The Colts should look to go 6-0 in the division and could land the top seed in the AFC. The Texans find a way to disappoint each year, but 2011 could be different. With a league-leading running back taking pressure off of the passing game, a health Andre Johnson could be the answer to their usual .500 season. Houston will certainly look to beef up their defense in the draft and it certainly won’t be more than a year or two before they take over the division as the colts get older and the Texas hit their prime. The Jags rely too heavily on  MJD to get the job done and this will continue to haunt them in 2011; especially after an off-season surgery has raised questions as to the health of MJD. The Titans have the same issues as Jacksonville; a great running back but not much else. A new coach is not going to be able to breathe life into that team and Tennessee looks to finish the year at the bottom of the division….again. The AFC South plays the AFC North and the NFC South. This will match them against 4 playoff teams from last year as well as 3 bottom dwellers, so it should all even out in the end. Tennessee 5-11, Jacksonville 5-11, Houston 9-7, Indy 13-3.

Finally we look at the AFC West. The AFC West was won by the Chiefs as they went 10-6 last season. Don’t be fooled! They only played 2 teams with winning records the entire season and certainly won’t be back to the playoffs in 2011. Oddly enough the AFC West was one of only two divisions (NFC South) to have 3 teams go .500 or better. This is because they played the NFC West and the AFC South, one of the easiest schedules in 2010. Kansas City does indeed have the players on offense to make this team go. Cassel looked much better than he did in 2009 and Charles was a fantasy stud, nearly breaking the ypc mark on his way to rushing glory. Bowe was a monster in the passing game and was certainly Cassel’s favorite target. The question will be how these players perform against better foes. The Raiders went an impressive 6-0 in the division, but went 2-8 in the rest of their games including an 0-6 mark in the rest of the AFC. McFadden gave life back to the running game, but there are just too many pieces missing for this team to be dominant. Denver may be the surprise team of 2011 for this division; they may compete with the Bills for the surprise team of the entire league. When healthy Moreno has proven to be a dominant runner, capable of leading this team and taking some pressure off of a passing game that scored big. Denver’s weakness was allowing too many points to their opponents. If they can get their defense straightened out, don’t be surprised to see this team win the division at 9-7. More like however is that the Chargers re-emerge as the division champs. If Matthews stays healthy, he and Tolbert should dominate the ground game in a major way. Rivers made any average Joe look like Reggie Wayne in the pass game. V-Jax and Gates could make this team very scary. The AFC West plays the NFC North and the AFC East so there is a legit chance that the winner will be .500 or below. The question will be whether one team can dominate the division like the Raiders did last year. My guess is that the Chargers will be able to do just that. Raiders 4-12, KC 6-10, Denver 8-8, SD 9-7.

So the 6 playoff teams will be Baltimore, Indy, NE, SD, Pitt, and Buffalo.

New England over Buffalo, Pitt over SD, Baltimore over Pitt, Indy over New England, and Baltimore over Indy.

Green Bay and Baltimore will pay for the Super Bowl and Green Bay wins back to back titles.